Friday, July 8, 2016
Welcome to the July 2016 VetJobs Veteran Employment Situation Report (VESR) covering veteran unemployment for JUNE 2016. The VESR is published on the Friday of the month when the Department of Labor (DOL) releases the unemployment reports.
This report is in three parts.
-The first section will be an editorial providing a brief overview of the economy and the Department of Labor’s (DOL) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on the labor market.
-The second covers where the jobs were created and where one would currently have the best chance for finding employment.
-The third covers specifically the employment situation of veterans.
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On the economic front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports national unemployment rose from 4.7% in May to 4.9% in June. The good news is 287,000 new jobs were added for June. This is very good news in light of the last several months of dismal unemployment reports. Given the size of the American economy, at least 250,000 jobs a month need to be created in order to have any real growth in the economy.
Today’s Wall Street Journal reports that private payrolls in June rose at the fastest clip in three months suggesting many U. S. firms continue to create jobs at a healthy pace and alleviating some concerns over a slowdown. While there was a healthy increase in new jobs for June, the BLS revised down the gains reported in May from 173,000 to 168,000, another loss of jobs.
But with these number we still have a weak, anemic and very bleak economy. It is the worst performance of the last six years. While the national unemployment rate fell in May and rose in June, which sounds like it should be good since the unemployment rate is the lowest level since 2007, it is a deceptive number as hundreds of thousands of eligible employees continue to drop out of the workforce. There are now over 90 million people who have “dropped out”. There either are not jobs for them or worse still, a large portion have no skills due to the failings of our educational system.
Obviously there are a lot of conflicting currents going on in the economy. As I have written many times before, a big part is that many of those seeking work do not have the skills sought by employers. America is very short on trades craft candidates which is why there are over 200,000 openings in manufacturing that cannot be filled. There are not enough qualified Americans to do the job.
The good news is that veterans are in demand. The fact that the veteran unemployment rate is only 4.2% when the national unemployment rate is 4.9% demonstrates once again that veterans are getting jobs at a better rate than their civilian counterparts!
The real bottom line is the American economy, after a supposed eight-year recovery, is still flat and not exhibiting real growth. Our political leaders are not helping to move things, in fact, the administration is now issuing thousands of new regulations that hinder business growth. Until there is a real change in the attitude of government towards business and deregulation, the American economy will not really grow. The numbers for the last eight years confirm this observation.
Thank you for reading.
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From the BLS
Erica L. Groshen, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.9%. Job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and financial activities. Employment also increased in information, mostly reflecting the return of workers from a strike.
The unemployment rate increased by 0.2% to 4.9% in June, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 347,000 to 7.8 million. These increases largely offset declines in May and brought both measures back in line with levels that had prevailed from August 2015.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (4.5%) and Whites (4.4 %) rose in June. The rates for adult men (4.5%), teenagers (16.0%), Blacks (8.6%), Asians (3.5%), and Hispanics (5.8%) showed little or no change.
The number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks increased by 211,000 in June, following a decrease in the prior month. At 2.0 million, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little in June and accounted for 25.8% of the unemployed.
In June, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs rose by 203,000 to 3.8 million, after a decline in May.
Importantly, both the labor force participation rate, at 62.7%, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.6%, changed little in June. As I have said before, you can NOT have a thriving economy when nearly 40% of the eligible labor force is not participating. These people have to have food, shelter, healthcare, transportation, etc., for which they cannot pay. That means someone else is supporting them or they are wards of the welfare system. Contrary to what some politicians like to have people believe, nothing is free. Somebody, somewhere, is paying for the American low labor force participation rate.
The national veteran unemployment rate rose from 3.4% in May to 4.2% in June.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 587,000 to 5.8 million in June, offsetting an increase in May. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
In June, 1.8 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 502,000 discouraged workers in June, down by 151,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in June had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
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WHERE THE NEW JOBS WERE CREATED
For those people looking for work, the following paragraphs from the BLS commissioner’s report indicates where the new jobs were created. If you are looking for a job, these areas may offer employment opportunities.
Establishment Survey Data Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, after changing little in May (+11,000). In June, job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and financial activities.
Employment also rose in information, largely reflecting the return of workers from a strike.
Leisure and hospitality added 59,000 jobs in June, following little employment change in the prior month.
Employment increased in performing arts and spectator sports (+14,000), after edging down in May.
Employment in food services and drinking places changed little over the month (+22,000). Job gains in leisure and hospitality have averaged 27,000 per month thus far this year, down from an average of 37,000 in 2015, reflecting slower job growth in food services and drinking places.
Health care and social assistance added 58,000 jobs in June. Health care employment increased by 39,000 over the month. Job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+19,000) and hospitals (+15,000), about in line with average monthly gains over the prior 12 months in each industry. Within social assistance, child day care services added 15,000 jobs in June.
Employment in financial activities rose by 16,000 in June and has risen by 163,000 over the year.
Employment in information increased by 44,000 in June. Employment rose in telecommunications (+28,000), largely reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Employment increased in motion picture and sound recording industries (+11,000), after a decrease of similar magnitude in May.
Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in June (+38,000). Thus far this year, the industry has added an average of 30,000 jobs per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 52,000 in 2015.
Employment in retail trade edged up by 30,000 in June, after changing little over the prior 2 months. In June, job gains occurred in general merchandise stores (+9,000) and in health and personal care stores (+5,000). Retail trade has added 313,000 jobs over the year.
Employment in mining continued to trend down in June (-6,000). Since reaching a peak in September 2014, mining has lost 211,000 jobs. Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and government, showed little or no change in June.
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VETERAN UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT
General Summary from CPS Veterans Report
The BLS CPS report states there were 20,907,000 veterans left in the United States in June, down 30,000 from the 20,937,000 veterans in May. Since the Vietnam War the trend of veterans in the United States has continuously been decreasing. America has lost nearly two-thirds of its veterans since the Vietnam War.
BLS CPS reports there were 10,508,000 (50.3%) veterans in the workforce in June. That represents a decrease of 53,000 from the 10,561,000 veterans in the workforce in May.
442,000 (4.2%) veterans were unemployed in June. 10,399,000 veterans were not in the workforce in June. This number shows there are a lot of veterans sitting on the sidelines and not participating in the workforce. This is also true of civilians where over 90 million are not participating in the workforce. In spite of what politicians may say, you cannot have a thriving economy with so many people not participating in the workforce.
Like the last three months, the really good news is the overall veteran unemployment rate continues to be lower than the national unemployment rate. The fact that the veteran unemployment rate of 4.2% is lower than the national unemployment rate of 4.9% is great news for the veteran community. And again demonstrates that veterans are in high demand in the civilian work place. The June 4.2% veteran unemployment rate again confirms that veterans are obtaining employment at a better rate than nonveterans.
In June there were 251,000 veterans in the 18 to 24-year old cohort. Of those, 188,000 (74.6%) were in the civilian labor force, of which 177,000 (70.3%) were employed and 11,000 (5.7%) were unemployed. For comparison, the national 18 to 24-year old unemployment rate in June was 10.9% (2.190,000).
There were 1,731,000 veterans in the 25 to 34-year old veteran cohort in June, down 18,000 from May. Of this group, 1,421,000 (82.1%) were in the workforce of which 1,330,000 (76.8%) were employed and 91,000 (6.4%) were unemployed. 310,000 were not in the workforce. For comparison, the national unemployment rate for the 25 to 34 year olds in May was 5.2% (1,832,000)
The unemployment rates for the older veteran cohorts are as follows:
35 to 44 year olds 3.6% (1,179) 2.7% (52,000)
45 to 54 year olds 3.3% (1,119) 2.7% (74.000)
55 to 64 year olds 3.2% (851)
65 year olds and over 4.0% (375)
The above numbers indicate that older veterans in June found jobs at a better rate than non-veterans given that the national unemployment rate is 4.9%. Most economists view unemployment rates of below 4.5% to 5.0% as just the normal churn of people moving between jobs. Some refer to it as natural unemployment. No matter what one calls it, the overall numbers for veteran unemployment are very strong when compared to their civilian counterparts!
There were 2,014,000 women veterans in June. 1,103,000 (59.3%) were in the civilian labor force of which 1,134,000 (56.3%) were employed, and 60,000 (5.0%) were unemployed. 820,000 women veterans were not in the workforce in June The national unemployment rate for women in June was 4.9% (3,600,000).
Gulf War II Veterans
There were 3,877,000 Gulf War II era veterans in June. 3,103,000 (80.1%) were in the workforce. Of those, 2,966,000 (76.5%) were employed and 137,000 (4.4%) were unemployed. 773,000 Gulf War II era veterans were not in the labor force.
There were 2,552,000 black veterans in May, of which 1,440,000 (56.4%) were in the civilian work force. 1,374,000 (53.8%) were employed and 66,000 (4.6%) were unemployed. The national Black unemployment rate in May was 7.7% (1,488,000). The national Black unemployment rate is 3.1% higher than the Black veteran unemployment rate. These numbers again confirm the advantages of minorities joining the military to obtain employment skills and work experience. From these numbers, the Black veterans are definitely finding jobs at a better rate than their Black civilian counterparts!
There were 3121,000 Asian veterans in June of which 198,000 (63.3%) were in the workforce. 191,000 (61.3) were employed and 6,000 (3.2%) were unemployed. The national Asian unemployment rate in May was 3.6% (340,000).
There were 1,483,000 Hispanic veterans in June of which 894,000 (60.3%) were in the workforce. 838,000 (56.5%) were employed and 56,000 (6.2%) were unemployed. 589,000 were not in the workforce. The national unemployment rate for Hispanics in June was 5.7% (1,508,000).
There were 17,487,000 White veterans in June of which 8,572,000 (49.0%) were in the workforce. 8,229,000 (47.1%) were employed and 344,000 (4.0%) were unemployed. 8,914,000 White veterans were not in the workforce. The national White unemployment rate in May was 4.2% (5,236,000).
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